IS COP28 a waste of time?
- graemetollins
- Jul 26, 2023
- 3 min read
Back in 1995, the first assembly of COP, otherwise known as Conference of the Parties, was held in Berlin, Germany. Made up of 197 countries, COP was formed (under the umbrella of the UNFCCC) to tackle the issue of what was then seen as the distant future possibility of climate change.
The original COP timeline.
That was almost 30 years ago.
If the broken temperature records, disappearing sea ice, stalled jet streams, and huge, food-destroying droughts are anything to go by, that future possibility is now a present certainty.
This is nothing new, though. Scientists have been warning us for years about the high (really high) probability of massive impacts from our carbon emissions for much longer than 30 years.
Some called them ‘doommongers’. Most just ignored them.
Yet, the data has shown that all of those forecasts were, if anything, too conservative. Previous models are hastily being rearranged as non-linear feedback loops from forest deforestation, ice depletion, ocean acidification, and many other wonderful systems multiply on top of each other.
Deer surrounded by forest fires.
Whether or not we have passed tipping points that lead to irreversible cascading effects is as yet unknown. What we do know, in the summer of 2023, is that half of the northern hemisphere is either boiling, flooding, or burning up in an inferno.
Just like 2022. And 2021 …
COP has the power to make binding decisions that all 197 parties must adhere to, yet little has been accomplished in the past 30 years. Their goal, back in 1995, was to limit global warming to a 1.5 degree limit by 2050. Still inside a so-called “safe zone”, they said.
Governments and businesses would accomplish this by reducing harmful emissions 43% by 2030. Of course, emissions have gone up, not down, in the intervening years. COP has been a toothless monster, characterised by bickering and inaction rather than agreement and urgency. Basically, everyone has ignored their responsibilities by blaming everyone else.
The stunning lack of impact conferences have had on CO2 emissions.
Which brings us to COP28. This year’s happy get-together will be held in Dubai in November and December. The host nation provides the COP President-Designate for COP28 UAE – the sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who also happens to be CEO of the UAE’s largest oil company – Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). Considering there were more fossil fuel lobbyists (503 at the last count) at COP26 than there were official delegates from the parties, you have to wonder what the ratio will be this year.
Now, the sultan has made all the right declarations. He recently said he was “approaching COP28 with a strong sense of responsibility and the highest possible level of ambition”.
Sounds good so far.
He went on to add that he would be promoting "a pragmatic, realistic and solutions-oriented approach" to the crisis.
Oh.
Considering that, since taking the CEO position at ADNOC, the sultan has signed a $4 billion investment agreement with investment titans, Blackrock, and overseen a six-company-consortium, $20.7 billion agreement for the development of oil pipeline infrastructure, I’d say that his ‘green credentials’ are not exactly spotless.
COP28 host city - Dubai.
Presidential qualities aside, you can only shake your head at the irony of hosting a conference centred on cutting fossil fuel emissions in a region of the world that got obscenely wealthy on the back of fossil fuels. Let’s not even get into the slightly troubling issues of human rights, slave labour, democratic freedoms …
So, as the delegates are all pampered to within an inch of their lives by their hosts, gently romanced by lobbyists, and housed in palatial hotel rooms (complete with blasting AC to counter the ever-rising desert heat), let’s not expect too much from COP28.
A few vague statements and promises that will be forgotten by January, perhaps. Maybe a tearful guy from some soon-to-disappear island in the Pacific making an impassioned speech that merits 10 seconds on the news. COP28 will arrive in a gold-plated orgy of excess, and then meekly wander off with handshakes promising to ‘do more next time’.
Personally, I think they should hold the whole show in a burned-out forest in Greece, in boats above dying coral reefs, or on the site of a village swept away by storm-induced landslides in Japan.
Then again, maybe everyone would be better off doing the whole thing by zoom. Flying countless private jets to one location has been known to belch out a fair amount of CO2.
Pictures.
COP timeline:
Deer in forest fire:
Taken by John McColgan, employed as a fire behavior analyst at the Forest Service, an agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
CO2 emissions chart:
Dubai:
Comments